Supercomputer predicts where Everton will finish in their Premier League relegation battle

Everton have been backed by data experts FiveThirtyEight to avoid relegation and maintain their status as the longest serving top-tier side in English football.

The company uses complex statistical analysis to predict the outcome of matches, formulating a predicted final table with each team’s percentage chance of various final positions.

And the Toffees’ dramatic win at home to Newcastle United before the international break has seemingly given Frank Lampard’s side the boost to avoid the drop, with the analysis giving them a 32% chance of going down.

That win, courtesy of an 99th minute Alex Iwobi strike, gave 10-man Everton a vital three points and a huge moral boost - it also reduced their percentage chance of relegation down from 38%.

The supercomputer has predicted Everton to pick up 11 points in their 11 remaining games, taking them to a final 36 points - good enough for 17th.

That’s two points more than Burnley - taking the final relegation place - and Sean Dyche’s men have been given a 51% chance of relegation.

Watford (83%) and Norwich (more than 99%) have been given little hope by the data experts, while Leeds United (23%) are far from safe - Brentford (7%) and Newcastle (4%) would need a disaster to drop into the bottom three.

More good news for Everton fans further up the table too, as the computer has given Manchester City a 62% chance of pipping Merseyside rivals Liverpool to the Premier League title, with Jurgen Klopp’s men forecasted to finish two points short of City.

Chelsea and Arsenal are predicted to complete the top-four, with Spurs and Manchester United set to take the two Europa League spots.

Where Everton can pick up the points

Eleven points in 11 games is no easy task for a side who average 0.93 points-per-game and have four of the top-six still to play.

But, barring the Wolves defeat, the Toffees have been brilliant at Goodison Park and will see home fixtures against Brentford and Crystal Palace as very much winnable.

And while their away form under Lampard has been woeful, there is no better time to turn that around then against relegation rivals - Everton have Burnley and Watford to play away from home and could do with wins in both.

Victories in all four of those games give Everton 12 points and while it is obviously not as simple as that, there will also be plenty of opportunity to take points off inconsistent sides like Manchester United, West Ham and Leicester.

A quick look up to Leeds can give Everton a sense of how important a good double-gameweek can be, and with West Ham and Burnley both to play in the space of four days, they can pull that percentage right up.

Predicted table in full

1. Manchester City 91 points

2. Liverpool 89 points

3. Chelsea 80 points

4. Arsenal 71 points

5. Tottenham 67 points

6. Manchester United 63 points

7. West Ham 59 points

8. Wolves 55 points

9. Leicester City 51 points

10. Aston Villa 49 points

11. Crystal Palace 47 points

12. Southampton 45 points

13. Brighton 44 points

14. Newcastle 40 points

15. Brentford 40 points

16. Leeds 37 points

17. Everton 36 points

18. Burnley 34 points

19. Watford 30 points

20. Norwich 24 points