Everton and Newcastle have gone in different directions since Frank Lampard’s first game in charge

Everton host Newcastle United on Thursday evening in their biggest game of the season and arguably their biggest in the last decade.

Premier League survival is on the line and the Toffees sit above 18th-placed Watford thanks only to goal difference - albeit with three games in hand.

Home form had previously been the backbone on which to build momentum and two home games against Wolves and Newcastle the basis on which to end the season strongly.

But a 1-0 defeat to Wolves on Sunday gave way to a real sense of resignation around Goodison Park, and with the hardest run-in of the bottom five - including Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, Manchester United, Arsenal and Leicester - Frank Lampard’s side cannot afford to drop more points on Thursday.

The mood in the north-east could not be more different. Newcastle have won six of their last eight - losing at Chelsea courtesy of some controversial refereeing and an 89th minute winner - to pull themselves away from any relegation danger.

It’s hard to believe that these two met just over five weeks ago in Lampard’s first Premier League game in charge - with Everton three places and four points clear of their hosts that night.

The two sides are now poles apart in terms of form, confidence and optimism. They are on very different paths as the season closes in.

January signings the precursor for games ahead

The differing fortunes between Everton and Newcastle started before Lampard’s arrival and before the two met at St James’ Park.

The Magpies - buoyed by the finances of the Saudi takeover - spent over £80 million on five first-team players, a well thought out mixture of experienced Premier League talent - Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn, Chris Wood - and statement signing Bruno Guimaraes from Lyon.

All have played prominent roles in Newcastle’s recent run, most obviously in their 2-1 win at Southampton in which goals came from Wood and Guimaraes - the latter set up by Burn.

Conversely, Everton’s signings have struggled, whether that be for form or for minutes.

Far from picking up scraps - they spent around £30 million on two full-backs, took Dele Alli on a free and signed Donny van de Beek and Anwar El Ghazi on loan - the Toffees also brought in five players, ostensibly primed for first-team action.

Since then Nathan Patterson, Vitaliy Mykolenko and El Ghazi have played a combined 193 minutes in the Premier League.

Van de Beek has shown signs of promise in blue but failed to turn that into significant creative output - with no goals or assists - while the less said about Alli’s start the better.

While Newcastle’s recruitment was intelligent and considered, Everton’s seemed slapstick, and the difference in influence of those signings has been a major factor in what followed.

Magpies flying, Toffees choking

The result at Newcastle in February was a fair reflection of a woeful Everton performance and the form of the two sides since then has been night and day.

Newcastle have gone on to take 13 points from six games while Everton followed victory over Leeds United with four winless games and no goals scored.

And the contrast between the mood on Tyneside and Merseyside is worlds apart.

The defeat at home to Wolves on Saturday - specifically the moment of the final whistle - gave an idea of the mood around Goodison, as the expected boos were replaced by the silence of resignation.

Confidence, of players and fans, is shot. There is no evidence that when things go against them, the players can turn a game around and fight for points.

And there is nothing to show that Lampard is able to turn the tide either.

Newcastle are brimming with confidence and fight, taking the game to Chelsea last weekend before conceding late.

They’ve taken early commanding leads, dominated games and fought back from going behind all since the reverse fixtures, and done so with the belief of a team that’s been well managed.

All of a sudden, a win can take them into 12th and they will be confident of doing exactly that.

A win can turn the tide

For evidence on how much a win can bolster belief, Everton need only to look to the team one place above them.

Leeds United’s win at home to Norwich on Sunday has lifted the mood enormously, especially for a side only four points above the Toffees, having played three games more.

They had previously lost six in a row but a victory wipes the slate clean and brings untold belief.

Win at home on Thursday and Lampard’s side can pull three clear of the drop with a game on relegation-rivals Burnley and two on Watford with games against Crystal Palace, Brentford and the Hornets then looking like a real chance at three points.

Performances likes the one against Leeds or the one - albeit in defeat - against Manchester City show the quality of the side when confident and the Goodison faithful behind them.

Thursday’s game is huge, it might be season-defining. It needs to be a win.