Merseyside coastal towns could be engulfed by 5ft sea level rise in just 40 years - affected areas

Coastal towns in Merseyside and the rest of the UK could be engulfed in water in less than forty years, according to new research into rising sea levels.

Scientists at IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP) have simulated the impact of climate change on ice sheets, icebergs and oceans across the world and predict a rise in sea levels of almost 5ft - if all nations across the world do not achieve net zero emissions by 2060.

Director of ICCP, professor Axel Timmermann said: “If we miss this emission goal, the ice sheets will disintegrate and melt at an accelerated pace, according to our calculations.”

A flood map simulator for Merseyside predicts the worst affected areas would be along the Sefton coast, where parts of Formby, Ainsdale and Southport could be flooded.

The research

The ICCP is an international climate research center based in Busan, South Korea, which focuses on understanding of natural and man-made climate change.

The new study explains that in the last century, the global mean sea level has risen by about 20cm, but the computer simulation predicts an increase of around 140cm if zero emission targets are not met and ice sheets in the West Antarctic and Greenland melt.

Prof Timmermann said: “If we don’t take any action, retreating ice sheets would continue to increase sea level by at least 100cm within the next 130 years. This would be on top of other contributions, such as the thermal expansion of ocean water.”

“One of the key challenges in simulating ice sheets is that even small-scale processes can play a crucial role in the large-scale response of an ice sheet and for the corresponding sea-level projections.

“Not only do we have to include the coupling of all components, as we did in our current study, but we also need to simulate the dynamics at the highest possible spatial resolution using some of the fastest supercomputers.”

How could Merseyside be affected?

Using a flood map to model the rise in sea levels, it appears that low-lying Formby and Southport would be the most affected. Although this does not allow for the impact of man made and natural flood defences.

It is no surprise that parts of Sefton would be impacted, as a study last year named the area as one of the most at risk of flooding, in the entire UK - alongside Wirral.

Merseyside is at risk of flooding due to potential weather events such as heavy rain and storms, and West Kirby in Wirral is currently seeing the construction of a huge a flood wall.

But the 1.1km barrier along South Parade has been controversial since it was first proposed by Wirral Council. Residents and ward members have opposed the plans and the projected cost of the scheme is now more than £10m. Construction is expected to finish by this Spring.