How many points do Everton need based on previous seasons to stay in the Premier League?
Everton are 17th in the Premier League and sit above the relegation zone on goal difference alone.
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Everton currently sit on 22 points and are only above the relegation zone on goal difference, but have three games in hand on relegation rivals Leeds United, Watford and Norwich City.
But the Toffees have a tough run-in, which includes Newcastle United, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Frank Lampard’s task of preventing a first Premier League relegation for Everton is a tough one.
So , historically, what has been the total points required to stay in the top flight?
Points tally to avoid relegation
Going back to the 2010/11 campaign when David Moyes’ Everton finished seventh, Birmingham City, Blackpool and West Ham United were relegated. No team has finished bottom of the Premier League with more points than the Hammers did that season with 33.
Wolves finished 17th and avoided the drop that year, with 40 points, although 39 points and goal difference would have been enough.
Up until, and including, last season, when Fulham finished 18th with 28 points and missed out on survival by 11 points, the number needed to remain in the division varied between 33-39.
Between 2016/17-2019/20, three of the four teams that finished in the final relegation place (18th) finished on 34 points.
Everton currently have 22 points, with 12 games remaining, and a total of 36 points available.
If the Blues wanted to hit the 39 point mark that has historically been enough to stay up, they would require and an average of 1.41 points per game.
Thirty-nine points kept Burnley up last season, 35 points saved Aston Villa in the lockdown season, 36 kept Brighton up in 2019 and Southampton in 2017. Watford were the last side to finish 17th with a higher tally than 39, finishing with 40 in 2017.
What do Everton need?
So, we know Everton are likely to require 1.41 points per game to stay in the Premier League. But how likely is it they can achieve this?
With tough fixtures against Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham United, Arsenal and a double-header against Leicester City on the horizon realistic opportunities to pick up points on current from look limited.
Their games with Newcastle United, Brentford, Watford, Burnley and Crystal Palace are their best chance to add to their points tally.
A total of 15 points are up for grabs in those matches, but that would still leave them short of 39 point tally.
It’s well documented that the Blues’ home form is far better than the fixtures away from Goodison Park, with Everton having the worse away record in the league with one win, three draws and nine defeats.
Out of the current bottom five, Everton have won the most home games with five.
Before the narrow defeats to Manchester City and Wolves, Everton comfortably defeated Leeds under Lampard and the home fixtures against Newcastle, Brentford and Palace are key games to pick up points.
Thursday’s fixture with Newcastle, who have only suffered defeat in one league game in 2022, is a chance to add early breathing room for Lampard before the international break.
Wins in Everton’s more preferable fixtures noted above would leave them with 37 points, inside the previous season’s gap of 33-39 but relying on other teams falling short too.
So, it’s highly likely Lampard’s side will need to find another two points from somewhere or it’ll be Championship football next year.