Football supercomputer predicts Everton relegation future as Premier League run-ins assessed

Boffins have backed the Toffees to build on Sunday’s huge win at home to Chelsea but will they beat the drop?

Everton will survive the relegation fight and retain their status as a Premier League team, according to the predictions of a football supercomputer.

The team at FiveThirtyEight use statistical analysis to predict all kinds of sporting events - in this case the Premier League table.

And they have backed the Toffees to build on Sunday’s huge win at home to Chelsea and beat the drop, by just the single point.

Frank Lampard’s side have been predicted to finish 17th overall, on 38 points, while the chance of relegation to the Championship sits currently at 34%.

Level on 38 points with the Toffees are Burnley, although they have been given a 20% chance of relegation thanks to an impressive three-game winning streak.

That leaves Leeds United in the bottom three, just a point off their two rivals with 37 points - the analysts have predicted a 45% chance that the Whites will go down.

However, Toffees fans should not be lured in by the positive prediction, as last weekend showed exactly how much it can all change - before their win against Chelsea, Lampard’s side had been given a 54% chance of relegation, with Leeds looking good at just 18%.

The closeness in points total and the percentage swing highlights just how tight a relegation fight this season’s run-in is set to provide, with all three club’s equally capable of going on a winning run and capitulating entirely.

With all that in mind, here is your relegation run-in assessed for all three teams.

Clarets have momentum but tough games ahead

Josh Brownhill’s 86th-minute winner at Watford made it three wins in a row for Burnley.

Burnley’s turnaround since the departure of Sean Dyche has been sensational. They had won four games all season under Dyche before winning three on the bounce under the management of Mike Jackson.

They have all the momentum going into their final four games and are rightly favourites to pull clear once again, but momentum can disappear much quicker than it builds, and a meeting with Aston Villa is no walk in the park.

Steven Gerrard’s side can blow hot and cold like almost no one else in the league - barring Everton and Southampton, probably.

After that, Burnley have to travel to Champions League-chasing Spurs and Villa - again - before a final day clash with Newcastle at Turf Moor.

Leeds must take something from next two

Jesse Marsch and Leeds United fans will be desperate to see Raphinha produce some Brazilian magic to pull them from relegation.

Just about everything that could go wrong for Leeds last weekend did go wrong. They were never exptecting to beat Manchester City, but to lose your captain in the warm-up and then your most dependble player to a broken femur was a disaster.

To then sit on sunday and watch Everton beat Chelsea must have knocked Whites fans for six - they taken 11 points from 15 beforehand and somehow gone from nine points clear to two.

Jesse Marsch’s side must take something from the next two - away at Arseal and at home to Chelsea - if they are to go into the final two games with any hope.

Following that, a home game against Brighton and a final-day trip to Brentford are looking like must-win games.

Toffees must improve away from home

Richarlison’s winner against Chelsea provided a huge boost in the fight for survival, but Everton must take that momentum on the road if they are to beat the drop.

Lampard emphasised the importance of picking up points away from home after the Chelsea win, and if Everton are to stay up then they will need to take somerhing from the next two.

A trip to Leiecester is far from easy, but the fact they play in Roma on Thursday plays into the Toffees hands, while the only record worse than Everton away is Watford at home - the Hornets have lost their last 11 at Vicarage Road and show no signs of stopping that wretched run anytime soon.

Goodison will have its part to play after that, with Brentford and Crystal Palace making the trip to Merseyside for two must-win games, before a final day trip to London to take on Arsenal - how competitive they are will depend on their place in the Champions League fight.

Everton fans will hope the crucial three-game period in which they face Watford, Brentford and Palace will pull them to safety, but know a poor run in that time would make Arsenal away a concerning final day.

One thing is for sure: it’s going to go right down to the wire.