Fresh outcome predicted in Premier League top-four battle for Liverpool, Newcastle United and Man Utd after latest twist

Liverpool have been dealt a fresh blow in their bid to secure Champions League football after a result went against them on Thursday night.

The Reds have managed to pull themselves back into the top four conversation over the course of recent weeks, but they still need to take care of their own business while hoping results elsewhere go their way. The Reds are chasing down Manchester United and Newcastle United as they go into their last two games, but it seems that small list may have been whittled down to one.

That’s because Newcastle took care of business in their game in-hand against Brighton on Thursday night, winning 4-1 at St James’ Park.

That win takes Eddie Howe’s men within three points of securing their spot in the top four, facing Leicester City and Chelsea in their final two games - two sides who have endured disappointing seasons to differing degrees. Liverpool may now need to rely on Man Utd slipping up, though the Red Devils also have a game in-hand to play, and they need six points from their last three games.

But what do the data specialists think will happen between now and the end of the season? FiveThirtyEight are the go-to supercomputer these days, and the data experts say Jurgen Klopp’s men now have just a 27% chance of reaching the top four after Newcastle’s win over Brighton. The Magpies’ chances have gone up to 95%, while Man United are on 79%.

The latest projection suggests Liverpool will finish three points behind Man United when all is said and done, while Newcastle are tipped to finish four points better off than the Reds. For now, Liverpool can only control their own results, taking on a European football-chasing Aston Villa this weekend before facing already relegated Southampton on the final day.

Klopp’s men are going to need to win both of those games while hoping Man Utd slip up in two of their remaining three, facing Bournemouth, Chelsea or Fulham. Of course, the job isn’t quite done for Newcastle yet, but it seems their mission to return to the Champions League after more than two decades is all-but complete.